Long range weather for the UK

From the next hour to six months ahead

Each day shows how far the 51 runs of the European model agree: where they bunch together you can plan on it, and where they fan out the day is still open.

London, next 15 daysThe runs agree until Monday, then part company.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 12:34. ECMWF ensemble, new runs every 6 hours

London, from the next hour to the months ahead

The same view for Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool and Leeds

Next 12 hours
Rain at times, 0.4 mm
10 to 11°C, gusts up to 31 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Mostly dry, with rain on Saturday
Highs 10 to 11°C, about 5 mm of rain in total.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
A mix of wet and dry days
Most runs put highs between 6 and 16°C. Rain is favoured on 3 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

The UK over the next six weeks

Each week against what is normal for the time of year, averaged over our eleven cities. This shows which way each week leans. It cannot pick out a wet day.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
A little colder than normal
−0.5°C
Drier than normal
−18 mm
A little colder than normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.2°C
A little drier than normal
−2 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little drier than normal.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.5°C
Wetter than normal
+5 mm
Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+0.9°C
Wetter than normal
+5 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.6°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
A little warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
A little milder than normal, a little wetter than normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 12:34. ECMWF EC46; rain normals shown are London's

The full UK long range forecast

Long range weather for the UK

Across the UK right now

From the next hour to six months ahead

London, from the next hour to the months ahead

The UK over the next six weeks

Maps, warnings and the rest

Long range weather for the UK

Across the UK right now

From the next hour to six months ahead

Temperature now in each city

London, from the next hour to the months ahead

The UK over the next six weeks

Maps, warnings and the rest